As a devout follower of expected goals (or xG) AFC Wimbledon are providing the biggest headache of all 72 teams in the Football League. When looking at the League One table no one is expecting to see them in the top half. When Neal Ardley lost his job in November after six years in charge no one screamed that the team were in a false position in the table. Yet on my xG performance metrics the Dons should have the fourth highest points total behind only promotion chasing Luton, Barnsley and Portsmouth.
They actually find themselves in 23rd place, six points from safety. In a league with four relegation spots they are in real danger of returning to League Two so why are my performance numbers so different to the results?
NOTE: For those not familiar with xG this is a metric to monitor the quality of goalscoring chances. A value between 0 and 1 is assigned based on the probability the chance will result in a goal. A 1 in 20 long range shot with have a probability of 5% (an xG of 0.05) whereas a penalty has a 3 in 4 expectancy and therefore an xG of 0.75.
2018/19 AFC Wimbledon xG Performance by Match
The Dons started the season well with five points from the first three games and no goals conceded with impressive performances against both Fleetwood and Coventry. 13 defeats in the following 18 games and only one clean sheet shows how quickly fortunes can change at this level.
Since the early season shutouts, the Dons have consistently found them giving up chances in nearly all of their matches so the lack of a clean sheet comes as no surprise. Interestingly they have outcreated their opponents, based on xG, in 13 matches this season but have not managed to translate this into results. The problem being they are not scoring the volume of goals they should be with the chances created.
| GF | GA | GD | Pts | Position | |
| Actual Performance | 15 | 31 | -16 | 15 | 23rd |
| Expected Performance | 28 | 22 | 6 | 32 | 4th |
In total 13 goals fewer than expected have been scored and nine more goals than expected conceded. Try telling the Dons fans that the numbers say they should have a +6 goal difference rather than the actual -16! Expected points look particularly high at 32 and it’s unlikely many will have them as the fourth best team in the league.
2018/19 AFC Wimbledon Attacking Performance
The goalscoring underperformance noted is consistent amongst four of the five attacking threats with only Mitchell Pinnock scoring the amount of goals expected from the chances created. Joe Pigott is the club’s top goalscorer this season on four goals yet should have had another three. Pigott, Kwesi Appiah and Jake Jervis should have scored 14 league goals between them but have only hit the net six times.
2018/19 League One Attacking Performance
In comparison to the rest of the league the trio stick out amongst the biggest underperformers. An underperformance against xG in the short term is usually attributed to a combination of poor finishing, good goalkeeping and bad luck. As the season progresses if these chances keep coming the current trend should (in theory) reverse and the goals will follow.
AFC Wimbledon Big Chances Missed
Due to the low scoring nature of football games are often decided by the odd goal and therefore it is imperative big chances are taken in order to have a successful season. The Dons have missed a number of big chances as rated by my xG performance model with a selection shown below using the AFC Wimbledon TV YouTube channel:
Home to Coventry (Drew 0-0). Tom Soares’ weak shot eventually saved by the goalkeeper.
Home to Sunderland (Lost 2-1). Adedeji Oshilaja’s chance at 1-1 in the six yard box shooting over the bar.
Away to Burton (Lost 3-0). Joe Pigott’s has two big chances chances at 1-0 down. Firstly a close range shot that hits the bar, followed by a header that goes over the bar.
Away to Plymouth (Lost 1-0). Jake Jervis’ shot at 0-0 when a simple tap in was all that was needed.
Had the Dons been fortunate enough to score all of these chances at the game state then they could have had an additional 11 points and be placed in mid table.
Looking Ahead
Wally Downes was appointed as the successor to Ardley at the start of the month tasked with securing survival. The Dons will need to start scoring these big chances if that is to happen. However, don’t be surprised if they end up pulling themselves out of the relegation zone in the coming months. Expected goals is a strong indicator of future performance so it should be onwards and upwards for the curious case that is AFC Wimbledon.
EFL Numbers 